In brief
- On 27 July 2012 Somaliland Sun reported that 2.5 million cattle were exported through Berbera port in 2010, with about 78% going to Saudi Arabia and 20% to Yemen.
- The report carried a $65m estimate from port general manager Ali Omar Mohamed to deepen the port to 20 metres.
- Nothing in the evidence establishes whether that deepening was funded, contracted, started or completed, or what Berbera's draught and maximum vessel size are today.
On 27 July 2012 Somaliland Sun reported that 2.5 million cattle had been exported through Berbera port in 2010, with about 78% going to Saudi Arabia, 20% to Yemen and the rest to Egypt and Oman. The report described the port, built by the Soviet Union during the cold war, as the outlet for an economy in which livestock production contributed 60-65% of gross domestic product. It gave Somaliland a population of 3.8 million and estimated 8.4 million goats, 8.7 million sheep, 1.6 million camels and 400,000 cattle.
The report is a snapshot, not a baseline that SCR can carry forward. None of those figures is a current or independently verified number. The evidence before SCR contains no customs records, port authority data, FAO or USAID report, or academic study behind the 2010 export volume, the destination shares, the GDP contribution or the herd estimates, and no source at all for the population figure. What the report did not establish is what has happened since.
The port as the report described it
Berbera port general manager Ali Omar Mohamed told Somaliland Sun the port had a 650-metre berth and a depth of 11.5-12 metres. The biggest ship it could then take, he said, was 35,000 tons. He wanted it 20 metres deep so it could accommodate the world's largest container ship, weighing 300,000 tons, and put the cost of the changes at $65m.
That is a 2012 official's aspiration and cost estimate. It is not a funded programme, a tender, a contract or a construction start, and no figure in the evidence says the deepening has occurred. Somaliland Sun's report does not say who would pay the $65m, over what period, or whether any financier had been approached.
Livelihoods and aid
Somaliland Sun cited USAID for the finding that about 60% of the population depended on livestock and livestock products; of those, 55% led a nomadic life and 45% lived in urban and rural settlements. The same report said that in February, Britain launched a £13m aid package with partners including the UN's Food and Agricultural Organisation, the International Labour Organisation, the World Bank and Save the Children. UK international development secretary Andrew Mitchell said the project would create 20,000 jobs in agriculture and livestock in the region. That was a projection in 2012. The evidence does not show the package disbursed, delivered or completed, or the jobs created.
On the investment side, the report said the biggest private investment in Somaliland was Coca-Cola's $17m bottling plant outside Hargeisa, 88km (54 miles) from Berbera. It named no bottler, no date and no source for the ranking. It also recorded that three years earlier, around 2009, Bolloré Africa Logistics, part of the French Bolloré group, expressed interest in upgrading the port but pulled out, without giving a reason, terms or confirmation from the company.
Two smaller items in the report carried no baseline date and no current status: a wall enclosing a 70 sq m (750 sq ft) plot at the Hargeisa livestock market, built to keep animals from straying and stop encroachment by private developers; and the Borama meat market, which the report said then supported 216 meat retailers, up from a previous 65.
The one thing the 2012 report establishes for a reader today is the size of the question it left. It recorded a $65m estimate to deepen a port that carried the country's dominant export. It gives no evidence that the money, the contract or the dredging followed.
Frequently asked questions
What was the volume of livestock exports through Berbera?
Somaliland Sun reported on 27 July 2012 that 2.5 million cattle were exported through Berbera port in 2010. No figure in the evidence establishes export volumes after 2010.
What port upgrades were planned?
Berbera port general manager Ali Omar Mohamed said he wanted the port 20 metres deep to accommodate the world's largest container ship, weighing 300,000 tons, and put the cost at $65m, as reported by Somaliland Sun on 27 July 2012. No evidence establishes whether that work was funded, contracted, started or completed.
What constraints did the port have in 2012?
The port general manager told Somaliland Sun that Berbera had a 650-metre berth, a depth of 11.5-12 metres, and could then take ships of up to 35,000 tons.