In brief
- Wardheer News reported on 2023-11-08 that Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has publicly raised the question of access to the sea.
- The report, citing analyst Alex de Waal, names the Eritrean port of Assab as Ethiopia's most obvious target, though Abiy denies any intention to invade.
- The report does not establish any military movements, formal proposals, or specific impacts on Somali port projects since that date.
On 8 November 2023, Wardheer News reported that Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has publicly raised the question of his country's access to the sea, with one analyst naming the Eritrean port of Assab as the most obvious target. The report does not establish what, if anything, has happened since.
According to the report, Abiy first raised the issue publicly in July 2023. He has publicly denied any intention to invade Eritrea, telling soldiers on armed forces day: "Ethiopia has never invaded any country and will not do so in the future."
The report, which is based on a BBC-sourced piece by Alex de Waal, describes Assab as Ethiopia's most obvious target for Red Sea access. It notes that the port was part of Ethiopia until Eritrean independence more than 30 years ago. Since the 1998 Ethiopian-Eritrean war and the closure of the border, the Assab docks have been rusting away, while Ethiopia's trade has been channelled through neighbouring Djibouti.
Eritrea's statements on the matter have been terse and acerbic, pointedly refusing to join the "discourses" of its former ally on a matter that had "perplexed all concerned observers".
The article also cites casualty figures from the Tigray war, attributed to the Ethiopian army's own calculation, of between 260,000 and 520,000 soldiers killed or missing in action, plus 374,000 wounded.
The report leaves several key questions unanswered. It does not provide specifics on Ethiopia's desired port location, timeline, or any formal proposal made to Eritrea or other coastal states. No details are given on an emergency IGAD summit, including date, location, participants, or outcome. There is no evidence of any military movements or preparations by Ethiopia toward Assab or other ports. The report also does not detail any current condition assessment or rehabilitation plans for Assab, nor any specific statements from Djibouti, Somaliland, Somalia, and Kenya regarding Ethiopia's port ambitions.
For security analysts and infrastructure investors in the Horn of Africa, the implications for Somali port projects such as Berbera and Bosaso remain unclear. The Wardheer News report does not address potential impacts on those facilities, and no subsequent developments are established by the available evidence.
Frequently asked questions
What specific statements has Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed made regarding Red Sea ports?
According to Wardheer News, Abiy Ahmed publicly raised the question of Ethiopia's access to the sea in July 2023. He has publicly denied any intention to invade Eritrea, stating: "Ethiopia has never invaded any country and will not do so in the future."
How have neighboring countries, including Somalia, responded?
The report does not provide specific statements from Djibouti, Somaliland, Somalia, or Kenya regarding Ethiopia's port ambitions. Eritrea's statements have been terse and acerbic, refusing to join the 'discourses' on the matter.
What are the potential impacts on ongoing Somali port projects, such as Berbera and Bosaso?
The Wardheer News report does not address potential impacts on Somali port projects. No subsequent developments or formal proposals are established by the available evidence.